The Market Isn’t Crazy… It’s Just More Honest Now
If you’ve been feeling like the market is confusing lately, you’re not alone.
One person says, “Homes are sitting.”
Another says, “Things are still selling fast.”
And someone else insists, “Prices are dropping.”
So what’s actually true?
Every single day, I’m out in the Inland Empire and High Desert walking properties, sitting at kitchen tables, negotiating, and helping families navigate major life transitions. I’m seeing firsthand what’s working, what’s stalling, where the real opportunities are showing up.
So let me walk you through what’s really happening right now, through both the data and what I’m experiencing on the ground so that you can move forward with clarity instead of confusion.
Let’s Start With Pricing: The Truth Behind the Numbers
Right now, the list-to-sale price ratio is telling a very important story.
In the Inland Empire, homes are selling at about 99.7% of their final list price.
In the High Desert, we’re seeing very similar numbers:
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Apple Valley: ~99.7%
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Hesperia: ~100.0%
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Victorville: ~100.1%
Here’s what that means in real life:
Homes are not selling for deep discounts, but they’re also not wildly bidding over asking like we saw in 2021 and 2022.
This is what I call a “truth-telling market.”
Pricing matters again. Presentation matters again. Strategy matters again.
And I’ll tell you, when I’m sitting across from sellers at their kitchen tables, this is where the biggest shift is happening. The homes that align with the market are moving with strength. The ones that don’t are having to adjust, sometimes more than expected.
Buyers have some room to negotiate, but only when there’s a reason.
Sellers can still achieve strong outcomes, but only when they align with the market, not fight it.
What’s Really Happening Behind the Scenes
During the peak years, the market would “cover mistakes.”
You could overprice a home, and the market would often catch up to you.
That’s no longer the case.
Today:
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About 32.9% of homes are selling over list
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About 51% are selling under list
That split tells us everything.
This is no longer a one-speed market.
It’s a selective market.
In my day-to-day negotiations, I’m seeing this play out clearly when buyers are paying strong prices when the home makes sense, but they’re also walking away quickly when it doesn’t. There’s less emotional overreach and more thoughtful decision-making.
The homes that are dialed in regarding: price, condition, and location, are still performing beautifully.
The homes that miss the mark tend to sit, adjust, and often sell for less than they could have.
Absorption Rate: Why Some Homes Fly and Others Stall
One of the most important concepts right now is absorption rate which basically is how quickly homes are selling at different price points.
And here’s the key:
The market is moving at different speeds depending on price.
In the Inland Empire:
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Fontana: ~31–34 days to pending
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Redlands: ~35–36 days
In the High Desert:
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Victorville: ~36 days
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Hesperia: ~37 days
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Apple Valley: ~48 days
So what does that tell us?
The entry-level and mid-range homes are still moving quickly because that’s where the largest buyer pool is.
As prices increase, the buyer pool shrinks and the market slows down.
And I see this every week when I’m walking homes. In those lower and mid price ranges, buyer hesitation often means missing the opportunity. But as we move up in price, buyers tend to slow down, evaluate more carefully, and negotiate more intentionally.
What Actually Sells Fast Right Now
Across both regions, the homes that move quickly tend to have a few things in common:
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Priced correctly from the start
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Clean and well-presented
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Minimal immediate repairs needed
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Located near commuting routes or key amenities
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Functional, practical layouts
The homes that struggle tend to be overpriced, dated without adjustment, unique with a limited buyer pool, or impacted by condition or access challenges.
This isn’t a bad market, it’s simply a more discerning one.
Timing: What to Expect From Start to Finish
Let’s talk timeline, because this is where expectations can get off track.
From listing to closing, most transactions are taking about 50 to 65 days, with 57 days being a realistic average.
Here’s how that typically breaks down:
Listing to pending:
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20–35 days for well-priced homes
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35–60+ days if adjustments are needed
Pending to closing:
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30–40 days with financing
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15–25 days for cash
Now here’s something important for our High Desert and Inland Empire rural families:
Properties with septic systems, wells, or rural features may take longer because of additional inspections and due diligence.
And that’s not a problem it’s protection.
The Hidden Risk Most People Don’t See
Here’s something I want you to be aware of, because it’s impacting more transactions than people realize.
Right now, about 8% to 12% of accepted transactions are falling apart during escrow.
The biggest reasons?
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Insurance costs coming in higher than expected
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Interest rate changes affecting affordability
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Debt-to-income ratios no longer working
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Buyers realizing the full cost of ownership too late
This is especially important in areas with medium to high fire risk, where insurance can vary significantly.
I’ve had conversations during escrow where everything looked solid at the beginning, and then one number, either insurance or payment shifted the entire outcome. That’s why preparation on the front end matters more than ever.
The transaction doesn’t fall apart because of the house.
It falls apart because of the numbers behind the house.
The Calm Path Forward
So where does that leave us?
Right here in a market that is no longer chaotic, but requires intention.
For sellers:
Price it right. Prepare it well. Don’t test the market, enter it strategically.
For buyers:
Be ready. Be pre-approved. Understand your full payment, not just your purchase price.
For everyone:
Know that this market rewards clarity, not guesswork.
Final Thought
This isn’t a market to fear.
It’s a market to understand.
And when you understand it, you can move through it with confidence instead of hesitation.
That’s where I come in.
I’m here to help you navigate the process, protect your decisions, and bring calm to what can otherwise feel like a storm.
And the good news?
There is still opportunity here on both sides of the table.
You just need the right lens to see it.