After 13 months of double-digit increases, year-over-year rent growth slowed to a single digit pace in the late summer of 2022. Nevertheless, the cooling off does not mean the rental market will return to what was typical before the pandemic within the short term, especially when taking the high inflation rate and the strong labor market into consideration.
Since the second half of 2021, the national quarterly rental vacancy rate has been hovering near historic-low territory, in which only 5.6% to 6.0% of rental housing units are vacant compared to over 6% historically. It is the first time since 1985 that the rental vacancy rate has stabilized at such a low level for five quarters in a row. Although rental vacancy ticked up to 6.0% in most recent data, U.S. renters will continue to face challenges from limited supply and excess demand in the coming year that will keep upward pressure on rent growth. At a national level, we forecast rent growth of 6.3% in the next 12 months, somewhat ahead of home price growth and historical rent trends.
Specifically, rental demand may be stronger in urban areas, a departure from both recent trends and what is expected in the for-sale market. Unlike the recent trend of renting in the suburbs to take advantage of remote work to lower housing costs, the premium on urban rentals has shrunk sufficiently to draw people back to big cities to enjoy their diverse social and cultural offerings. In addition, rising housing costs, stemming from a twenty year high mortgage rate and slowing new construction, may keep many potential homebuyers in the rental market longer and thus fuel the already high rental demand. In fact. One silver lining for renters is that despite slowing single-family construction, builders have generally ramped up the construction of multi family units that are typically rental homes. This is expected to gradually create extra supply for renters, helping to eventually put long-term low vacancy rates in the rearview mirror.